True story: Fortune 250 firm builds superb network that seamlessly links
its managers enterprise-wide. The network is so good and so fast that
top executives see all the performance data at the exact same time the
line managers do. HQ doesn't hesitate to pick up the phone or zap an
e-mail to underlings, demanding explanations and clarifications. When
the line complains of micromanagement, the top dogs bark, "You expect us
to ignore data that run the business? Get real!" The result? The line
managers con the network. They delay posting data online. A few even
post misleading and inaccurate data to mollify their bosses. Within six
months, the technically excellent network is carrying crap data.
Almost-true story: Capacity-squeezed supplier starts to limit how much
product it allocates to customers. Customers now get barely 60% of what
they need. Not being morons, customers have their supply-chain software
pad their orders by 40% in the next cycle. But the cagey supplier cuts
the allocation by 50%. Customers then double their already inflated
orders. The supplier slashes the allocation yet again. Customers
double-down one more time. But by now the supplier has boosted capacity.
Customers can get everything they over-ordered. Now there's a glut.
Sound familiar?
Hypothetical story: Colleague sends urgent e-mail. Needs to know ASAP
when you will finish the Epsilon Project. You're confident you'll be
done by the 15th. To be safe, you respond that you'll finish by the
18th. She attaches that due date to a memo for her boss, but she warns
that you have been known to miss deadlines. Her boss can't afford to
mismanage expectations, so he tacks another week onto the delivery
estimate. But Sales, having been burned by him in the past, has
programmed its project-tracking software to automatically add another
four days to delivery dates from his department. The customer gets the
e-mail announcing Epsilon's ship date. Because the customer has built a
four-day cushion into its own expectations, this now puts the Epsilon
delivery a full 72 hours beyond its acceptable production deadline. The
customer immediately cancels its order. Your boss e-mails you that
Project Epsilon is dead.
What do these three examples have in common? All parties behaved
rationally based on the best information available to them--and ended up
dramatically worse off than before. Network technology effectively
amplified and accelerated that rational pathology. Rational pathologies
appear to infect even the best of companies. No company is wired better
than Cisco, for example. Yet though it has publicly bragged that it can
close its books within 24 hours, Cisco had to take a $2.2 billion
inventory write-down--almost 50% of its sales--in the first quarter of
the new millennium. Was it bad data? Bad luck? Bad timing? Or something
else?
As information becomes ever cheaper, data integrity becomes ever dearer.
In a marketplace where overbidding is a rational response, disclosing
how much you are overbidding is irrational. It's rational to build slack
into a process, but openly disclosing precisely just how much slack may
be irrational. It's rational to assume that managers would prefer to
manage based on timely and accurate information. But when that invites
constant interference--and added costs--it may simply be more
cost-effective to misrepresent.
We've all heard the techies sigh, "Garbage in, garbage out." That maxim
is misleadingly true: If you put bad information into a network, you'll
inevitably get bad information out again. But the truism obscures the
fact that networks themselves invite abuse. Perversely, they often
provide greater incentives to distort than to disclose. Why do networks
facilitate their own befouling? Because their designers neglect to
account for the true costs of disclosure. When the perceived costs of
reasonable disclosure exceed their perceived benefits, then distortion
and deception reign. The market "clears" only when the costs of the
distortions outweigh their benefits.
The solution? There isn't one. These problems can't be solved; they can
only be managed. Getting people to honestly disclose how much they will
honestly disclose is wishful thinking, not business reality. But
business reality dictates that organizations that commit to strategic
networking must invest as much effort in designing the incentives for
honest disclosure as they do in designing the technical infrastructure
itself.